Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,918$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(594 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,797.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,797.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $582$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{522.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 26.1)}}\) (asimptote \(522.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,080$ on 2020-05-22

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,945$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(50.8 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,695.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(79,695.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $63$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{251.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(251.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,570$ on 2020-05-22

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,270$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(146 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,579.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,579.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(0.522 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,196$ on 2020-05-22

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(149 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.6}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(4.93 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-05-22

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $960$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(14.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,614.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 74.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,614.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(0.862 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $784$ on 2020-05-22

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,786$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(483 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,312.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 73.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,312.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $707$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(71.9 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{813.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(813.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,705$ on 2020-05-22

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,125$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(418 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $397$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,341.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 75.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,341.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,624$ on 2020-05-22

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,400$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(291 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,262.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 67.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,262.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $159$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(11.8 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(194.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,419$ on 2020-05-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 88%
Niger recovered 78%
Burkina Faso recovered 72%
Morocco recovered 17%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,048$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(297 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,028.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,028.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(16.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 17.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-05-22

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $937$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(323 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{838.5}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 13.3)}}\) (asimptote \(838.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(8.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(73.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $113$ on 2020-05-22

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $814$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(243 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{781.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 21.2)}}\) (asimptote \(781.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(15.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 21.2)}}\) (asimptote \(51.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-05-22

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,332$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(728 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,843.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,843.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $197$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(58.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 19.7)}}\) (asimptote \(188.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,758$ on 2020-05-22